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Dr. Ryoichi Yamamoto, of the Tokyo Institute of Technology, argues in one study that unpredictable climate change will occur if average global temperatures rise 2°C. This number, +2°C, is drawing keen attention the world over. There is an unfortunate consensus that “temperatures will certainly rise 2°C if nothing is done.” An alarming fact is that while average global temperatures rose 0.6°C over the 100 years of the 20th century (1901 to 2000), they rose 0.2°C in just four years at the beginning of the 21st century (2001 to 2004). Compared to average temperatures in the latter half of the 19th century (from 1950 onward), temperatures have already risen 0.8°C by 2004 due to human industrial activity.
One study says this has caused coral to turn white. Upon detecting abnormal seawater temperature, the coral expels nutrient-producing algae. Having lost all nutrients, the coral turns white and finally dies. As a result, fish that eat the coral stalks will be chased out of their habitat. If this vicious cycle spreads, coral reefs around the world will be destroyed along with the fish whose lives depend on them. In Greenland, where the whole island is covered in ice, ice sheets are already starting to melt on a massive scale. Global warming is progressing steadily, and ice in the north pole is definitely decreasing. This presents a concern that polar bears will lose their food and habitat and eventually become extinct.
When will average global temperatures increase 1.5°C, at which point living species are said to suffer catastrophic damage?
If nothing is done, temperatures will become 1.5°C higher than the current levels in 2016, and the population of people suffering from water shortages will increase rapidly around the globe. More water will evaporate from the ground and sea surface, and the atmospheric balance will be tipped, resulting in a drastic shift in rainfall patterns. Numerous regions will experience torrential rains, while other places will face draught and land in many areas will cave in due to lack of water. It is said that billions of people will have a problem finding enough water.
Even such a small rise in average temperatures over the earth’s surface will cause regional cataclysms. Growing cases of extreme weather conditions are obvious signs of global warming. We are already witnessing these signs. Such phenomena, originally expected to happen only in the latter part of the 21st century, are already occurring around the world at the very beginning of the 21st century. According to a study by the World Health Organization (WHO), around 150,000 people are dying globally every year due to the various effects of global warming.
When will average global temperatures increase 2°C, at which point our civilization and ecological system are expected to suffer catastrophic damage?
According to the latest computer simulation, this will happen in 2028. Higher average temperatures will melt the ice shelves in Antarctica, and sea levels will rise. As the volume of warmer seawater increases, sea levels are expected to rise by as much as 50 centimeters. Coastal regions around the world will experience high tides and floods, which will occur in much higher frequencies, stripping 26 million people of their homes. Additionally, mosquito-breeding areas will spread and the number of people suffering contagious diseases such as malaria will increase rapidly. Lack of water will kill crops, and productions of wheat, corn and other grains will drop dramatically. The resulting global food shortage will drive sharp inflation.
“+2°C” is becoming a keyword for the global community, and many countries--particularly European nations--are making efforts to reduce greenhouse gases in order to keep air temperatures from rising 2°C. However, the climate of our earth has one characteristic called inertia, which means that once a trend starts it cannot be stopped right away. This complicates the issue. Even if we immediately stop all emissions of greenhouse gases now, global warming will not stop. It will take some time before the levels of gases fall, and temperatures will continue to rise for the next ten years. In other words, reducing emissions to zero by 2018 may still bring temperatures up by 2°C in ten years, or by 2028. This means, the year 2018 is the point of no return.
In fact, it is said that other living species may face mass extinction if the temperature rise is not kept below 1.5°C by 2016 or so. Subtract ten years from this, and 2006 is the year that determines whether or not mankind can avoid mass extinction of living species. This simulation covers the period until 2100. It is intended to generate a sense of urgency in the public.
What is the ultimate scenario of global warming according to the latest computer simulation?
As a result of the blind pursuit of affluence and convenience, mankind has released large quantities of greenhouse gases. By 2004, average temperatures rose 0.8°C, and the rise is expected to exceed 1.5°C in the next ten years, or by 2016, potentially causing a crisis among living species. By 2028 temperatures will rise to a level 2°C above what they are today, reaching levels where our civilization and ecological system will suffer catastrophic damage. Thereafter, the climate will become no longer stable, and by 2052 air temperatures will rise 3°C. Seawater temperatures will also rise. By 2069 the rise will exceed 4°C, and global warming will continue at an accelerating pace thereafter until the world will eventually see temperatures rise nearly 5°C in 2100. This is the ultimate scenario revealed by the simulation.
Needless to say, mankind is largely responsible for the rapid rise in average temperatures. The burning of large amounts of coal, petroleum and natural gas, and the logging of forests, are releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
How about you?Are you doing anything to improve the global environment? I’ll give you some examples: Are you bringing your own bags to supermarkets? Are you making sure your car does not remain parked for a long time while idling? An average person releases around 10 tons of carbon dioxide into the air. However, the capacity of the ocean and forest to absorb carbon-dioxide gases is approximately 12 billion tons. The global population is 6.5 billion, which means that one person can release slightly less than two tons of carbon dioxide (12 billion divided by 6.5 billion). In other words, if a person releases no more than two tons of carbon dioxide, the entire amount will be absorbed by the earth and global warming will not progress. This means that unless the current per-capita emission level of 10 tons is somehow reduced to two tons (one-fifth), our earth will no longer remain a safe place.
So, is our future doomed? There is still hope. We can avoid the crisis.
The globe is now experiencing a fever. There are medicines that can cure it.
One cure is to change our lifestyle to one that is more environmentally friendly. For example, we can introduce the clean energy produced by wind generation and solar generation.
We can also purchase energy-saving home appliances and hybrid cars. It’s important for us to actively purchase products that have less impact on the environment. This is the underlying concept of “green purchasing.” What we can do for the earth is to use environmentally friendly products (eco products) in our daily life. As the use of eco products spreads throughout the world, the total environmental impact suffered by the globe will surely decrease.
A temperature rise of 2°C is a critical limit that mankind must not breach. This is not something unavoidable, nor is it our destiny. It only means we have a choice, and that we must make an effort to have the destiny we want.
Hiroaki Kotani, CEO
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Global temperatures will soon increase 2°C. If we don’t do something now, not only mankind but also
other species will face extinction. 
